Back to home page | 
Listed in category:
Watch this item

The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb NEW

Free Shipping!

Item condition:Brand New
Quantity:
More than 10 available
Please enter a quantity of $quantity$ or less
Please enter a quantity of 1
Price:US $16.97Buy It NowBuy It NowBuy It Now
Shipping:FREE shipping US Postal Service Media Mail See more services 

Country:
ZIP Code:
Quantity:
(available quantity 16)
Service and other details:
Service
Estimated delivery*
Price
US Postal Service Media Mail
4-11 business days
Free
US Postal Service Priority Mail
4-5 business days
$2.99
*The estimated delivery time is based on the seller's handling time, the shipping service selected, and the payment method selected. Sellers are not responsible for shipping service transit times. Transit times may vary, particularly during peak periods.

 See discounts 

Save up to $1.00 on shipping when you buy additional eligible items from treebeardbooks.

 |  See all details
Estimated delivery within 4-11 business days.
Returns:
No Returns Accepted
eBay will cover your purchase price plus original shipping.
Learn more

A reserve price is the minimum price the seller will accept. This price is hidden from bidders. To win, a bidder must have the highest bid and have met or exceeded the reserve price.

 
Top-rated seller
treebeardbooks ( 40372)
100% Positive feedback
Get fast shipping and excellent service from eBay Top-rated sellers.
  • Consistently receives highest buyers' ratings
  • Ships items quickly
  • Has earned a track record of excellent service
Other item info
Item number:280329110330
Item location:florida, United States
Ships to:United States
Payments:
History:66 sold
SharePrintReport item
 Description Shipping and payments
Last updated on 03:37:50 AM PST, Jan 14, 2010 View all revisions
Item specifics - Nonfiction Books
Author: Nassim Nicholas TalebPublisher: Random House Inc
ISBN-10: 1400063515Subject: Business & Economics
ISBN-13: 9781400063512Topic: Economics
Format: HardcoverLanguage: English
Publication Year: 2007Condition: Brand New
Special Attributes: --  
See reviews
Detailed item info
Synopsis
In this irreverent, yet scholarly work, a financial trader and philosopher contends that a deeper understanding of world events comes from paying close attention to impactful statistical improbabilities he refers to as "black swans," by studying outliers rather than norms. The essay blends anecdotes and fables with a survey of historical events, social sciences, philosophy, and statistics and illustrates the need for a world view that goes well beyond the often misplaced certainty found in the bell curve. Graphs and other visual aids throughout; includes a brief glossary and an extensive footnote section.

Size
Length:366 pages
Height:9.3 in.
Width:6.3 in.
Thickness:1.2 in.
Weight:21.6 oz.

Publisher's Note
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan.

Industry reviews
"Writing in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne....Mr. Taleb presents a range of answers...but it's clear that he remains slightly vexed by the world he describes so vividly. Then again, beatific serenity may not be the goal here.... As Mr. Taleb warns, certitude is likely to be found only in a fool's (bell-curve) paradise, where we choose the comfort of the 'precisely wrong' over the challenge of the 'broadly correct.' Beneath Mr. Taleb's blustery rhetoric lives a surprisingly humble soul who has chosen to follow a demanding and somewhat lonely path. I wonder how many of us will have the courage to join him."
 (04/24/2007)

"[A] provocative macro-trend tome...."
 (05/21/2007)

"Taleb's critique of our current pretensions to knowledge, and of our unwarranted faith in our understanding of things like risk and change, is both rigorous and convincing. And THE BLACK SWAN is a terrifically engaging book, sophisticated without being inaccessible."


Portions of this page Copyright 1995 - 2010 Muze Inc. All rights reserved.
 Brand new hardcover essential reading!

We can only ship to the address supplied by Paypal.  Your address no longer has to be confirmed but we will only ship to the address supplied by Paypal (for your protection).


Media mail within the continental USA can take 5-20 days depending on many factors including how far you are located from us in florida.

If you are in Hawaii, Alaska, Puerto Rico, APO or any other address not located withing the continental United States media mail can take 3-5 weeks as the post office sends these packages by boat.

If you need this item quicker please choose priority mail which should arrive in 3-5 days.

Delivery Confirmation/Tracking Information:  We upload shipping information to your My Ebay so please track your packages in your My Ebay.

Treebeardbooks specializes in selling quality new books at very low prices usually with free shipping (check listing for any shipping charges). 



00821
Shipping and handling
Save up to $1.00 on shipping when you buy additional eligible items from treebeardbooks.
Item location: florida, United States
Shipping to: United States
Quantity:
Change country:
ZIP Code:
 
Shipping and handling
Each additional item
To
Service
Estimated delivery*
Free shipping
Free
United States
US Postal Service Media MailTM
4-11 business days
after seller receives cleared payment
US $2.99
US $2.00
United States
US Postal Service Priority Mail®
4-5 business days
after seller receives cleared payment
*The estimated delivery time is based on the seller's handling time, the shipping service selected, and when the seller receives cleared payment. Sellers are not responsible for shipping service transit times. Transit times may vary, particularly during peak periods.
Domestic handling time
Sales tax
Will usually ship within 2 business days of receiving cleared payment.
Seller charges sales tax for items shipped to: FL *(6.5%).
* Tax applies to subtotal + S&H for these states only
Return policy
The seller will not accept returns for this item.
Payment details
Payment methodPreferred/Accepted
Credit or debit card through PayPal
PayPal Preferred
Immediate payment required for this item
Immediate payment of US $16.97 is required.
Seller assumes all responsibility for this listing.
Back to home page | See More Details about "The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2007, Hardcove..." | Sell one like thisReturn to top

About eBay | Announcements | Security Center | Policies | Government Relations | Site Map | Help | Contact us
We'll cover your purchase price plus original shipping.  Learn more
Copyright © 1995-2010 eBay Inc. All Rights Reserved. Designated trademarks and brands are the property of their respective owners. Use of this Web site constitutes acceptance of the eBay User Agreement and Privacy Policy.
eBay official time